The Hidden Truth Behind Success: Learn from Survivorship Bias

 ✨ The Hidden Truth Behind Success: Learn from Survivorship Bias

👨‍✈️ By Dattaram Walvankar | @ShipOpsInsights

 

✈️ The WWII Aircraft Story That Changed Everything

Storytelling Begins…

During WWII, the US Air Force faced a deadly challenge. Their aircrafts were being destroyed mid-air during missions. Engineers began inspecting the aircrafts that returned, and found bullet holes mostly on wings and tail sections.

The military immediately suggested reinforcing those areas.

But then entered mathematician Abraham Wald, who had a different idea. He pointed out that they were analyzing the planes that survived – not the ones that were shot down and never returned. His logic?
👉 “If these planes returned despite bullet holes in certain areas, those are NOT the weak spots. The real vulnerabilities are in places with no bullet holes – because planes hit there didn’t make it back.”

This idea saved countless lives, and gave birth to the concept of Survivorship Bias.

💡 Lesson: What we see is only part of the picture. We ignore what didn’t survive.

➡️ Call to Action: Think deeper. Don’t let surface success mislead you.

 

🎓 College Dropouts and the Danger of Half-Stories

We celebrate Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Steve Jobs as college dropouts who made it big. But what about the millions who dropped out and failed? We never hear about them.

That’s Survivorship Bias in action.

When people say, “Look, they didn’t need a degree to succeed,” remember – we hear only the survivors. The failures are buried in silence. This doesn't mean dropping out is wrong – but doing so blindly, inspired only by success stories, is dangerous.

Every path has risks and odds. For every one success, there are hundreds of untold failures.

🚢 In shipping too – we hear of the one ship that delivered cargo during a typhoon. But what about the ones that didn’t make it?

💬 Takeaway: Always look at complete data before taking life-altering decisions. Don’t build your ship on half a map.

 

📈 Stock Market: For Every 10x, 100x... There’s a 0x

“Had you invested ₹1 lakh in XYZ stock, today you'd be a millionaire!”

Sounds familiar?

The truth is, this is marketed inspiration, not balanced analysis. For every one 100x stock, there are hundreds that went bankrupt, delisted, or stagnant for years.

This is Survivorship Bias in its most dangerous form – giving you an illusion that everyone is winning but you.

✅ The wise sailor checks the weather forecast, not just the stories of those who made it across the storm.

📊 Before investing, study:

• Survivors AND failures
• Risks, volatility, and long-term trends
• Not just “what if I had” but “what if it goes wrong”

💬 Lesson: Build financial wisdom from complete data, not viral charts.

 

🎥 Viral Fame is Not the Norm – It’s the Exception

“He quit his job and started a YouTube channel – now earns crores!”

We’ve all seen such headlines. But how many millions are grinding every day, uploading videos, getting 50 views and 2 likes – despite working as hard?

📌 Again, we only see the winners.

The ones who "made it." The others disappear quietly. No headlines. No blogs. No applause.

Does that mean you shouldn’t pursue your passion? Not at all. But understand the odds. Expect effort. Plan backup. Respect the hustle – even when it's unseen.

💡 Reminder: Just because it worked for someone doesn’t guarantee it will for you – or that you're failing if it hasn’t yet.

 

💼 The ‘Left High-Paying Job to Start Business’ Myth

"I left a ₹50 lakh job to follow my passion and now earn crores!" 🔥

Sounds exciting, right?

But again – this is Survivorship Bias.

You’re not hearing the stories of those who:

• Left the job
• Tried a startup
• Burned savings
• Went back looking for jobs (unsuccessfully)

🥹 Behind every “overnight success” are years of silent struggle, and behind every “bold move” are many forgotten failures.

Be bold, yes. But also be smart. Don’t chase someone else’s highlight reel without understanding the full film.

🛳️ In shipping terms: Don't leave port just because one ship came back with gold. Check the weather, the map, the fuel... and the chances.

 

⚠️ Final Thought: Train Your Mind to See the Unseen

In our world – whether on sea or land – it’s the unseen forces that often define outcomes.

Next time you see a success story:

• Ask: What am I not seeing?
• Who tried the same thing and failed?
• What were the hidden costs of this journey?

🌊 As mariners, we don't just look at the clear skies, we study the storm warnings. Let your life decisions be like that.

❤️ Celebrate success. But analyze failure too. Because knowing why someone failed is as important as knowing why someone succeeded.

📣 Call to Action:
Did this open your eyes?
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